อาคาร 2 ชั้น 9 ธปท.
PIER Discussion Paper เป็นช่องทางในการเผยแพร่และเป็นฐานข้อมูลของงานวิจัยเชิงลึกด้านเศรษฐศาสตร์ในประเทศไทย เปิดกว้างให้นักวิจัยทั่วไปในการนำเสนอผลงาน โดยจะมีผู้ทรงคุณวุฒิพิจารณาถึงความสอดคล้องกับวัตถุประสงค์ของช่องทางการเผยแพร่ ทั้งนี้ PIER Discussion Paper ไม่ได้เป็นวารสารวิชาการ ไม่มีการสงวนลิขสิทธิ์ ผู้เขียนสามารถเผยแพร่บทความในช่องทางอื่นหรือส่งตีพิมพ์ในวารสารทางวิชาการต่อไปได้ ผู้สนใจโปรดส่งบทความมาที่ email@example.com ภายใต้หัวข้อ “PIER Discussion Paper Submission”
Household Debt and Delinquency over the Life Cycle
This paper uses loan-level data from Thailand’s National Credit Bureau to study household debt over the life cycle of borrowers. The wide coverage and the granularity of the data allow us to decompose the aggregate, commonly-used debt per capita and delinquency rate into components that unveil the extensive and intensive margins of household indebtedness. This decomposition allows us to analyze debt holding, debt portfolio, and delinquency for each age and cohort. We find the striking inverted-U life cycle patterns of indebtedness as predicted by economic theories. However, peaks are reached at different ages for different loan products and different lenders. We also find that debt has expanded over time for all age groups. In particular, the younger cohorts seem to originate debt earlier in their lives than the older generations. Meanwhile, older borrowers remain indebted well past their retirement age. Finally, we find a downward pattern of delinquency over the life cycle. Our findings have important policy implications on financial access and distress of households as well as economic development and financial stability of the economy.
Thailand’s Household Debt through the Lens of Credit Bureau Data: Debt and Delinquency
This paper uses loan-level data from the National Credit Bureau to study household debt in Thailand. The wide coverage and the granularity of the data allow us to analyze prevalence, intensity, and distribution of debt and delinquency by loan product, lender, and borrower. We show that there are tremendous heterogeneities in debt and delinquency across these attributes. Overall, credit access in Thailand appears moderate and limited for housing loans. Thais begin to have debt earlier in their lives and hold debt until very old. Household debt is largely concentrated and plagued with high debt intensity and delinquency prevalence, especially among the young working age population, implying a potential increase in the vulnerability of the financial system and prolonged sluggish domestic spending. Our findings have important implications for policy design and targeting.
Fiscal Stimulus and Household Debt: Evidence from Thailand’s First-Car Buyer Tax Rebate
This paper studies the impacts of Thailand’s 2011-2012 first-car tax rebate scheme on household debt using the account-level loan data from National Credit Bureau. While the literature mostly concentrates on the macroeconomic effects of such stimulus, this study focuses on the effects on individuals who borrow to finance their durable-goods purchases. We show that the program led to higher delinquency on loans and crowded out other loan originations. Our findings are consistent with the demand-shifting mechanism—the rebates encouraged participants to purchase their cars very prematurely. The results were more adverse for passenger car buyers than for truck buyers. We also find local spillover effects of the program on non-auto loans and on individuals not participating in the program.
The Impact of Family Business Apprenticeship on Entrepreneurship and Survival of Small Businesses: Evidence from Thailand
This paper investigates the impact of exposure to a family business and participating in a family business on individuals decision to start a business (self-employed and small business) and their likelihood of survival. We find that individuals who have a family member doing business are more likely to start their own business. However, only individuals who have actually worked in the family-owned business are more likely to survive longer. This paper demonstrates that the higher the number of hours they worked in a family business, the higher the probability of survival. The impact remains significant even if the sample includes only individuals who are the spouses of business owners. The impact of prior experience from helping a family business depreciates over a short period of time. This result suggests that entrepreneurial skills can be learnt from an apprenticeship in small businesses.
Institutional Capital Allocation and Equity Returns: Evidence from Thai Mutual Funds’ Holdings
Information about mutual funds’ stock holdings can provide useful signal for investors. In this study, we show that portfolio of stocks that are not favored by mutual funds tend to perform poorly, with monthly returns of 0.38% to 0.82% lower than stocks more widely held. When compared against asset pricing models, portfolio of such stocks can have monthly alphas as low as -0.33%, and the reason seems unrelated to stock-picking ability. One possible explanation is that demand from institutional investors can drive up stock prices, highlighting the importance of investor clientele in emerging market asset pricing.
Chasing Returns with High-Beta Stocks
One of the proposed explanations for the low-beta anomaly – a prevalent yet puzzling empirical finding that stocks with low systematic risk tend to earn higher returns than the Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) predicts and vice versa – is that leveraged-constrained and index-benchmarked mutual funds drive up demand for high-beta stocks, leading to systematic mispricing. We find evidence that Thai mutual fund managers, on average, favor high-beta stocks and tend to alter their portfolio composition of high-beta stocks in response to fund flows. In addition, funds that hold high-beta stocks perform poorly compared to their peers: a one standard deviation increase in high-beta stock holdings is associated with a 1.3 percentage point decrease in future relative returns.
Are Consumers Forward-looking? Evidence from Used iPhones
This study examines the impact of planned obsolescence – the introduction of new models to make existing models obsolete – on secondary markets for mobile phones. Using data of over 320,000 used iPhones listings on Thailand’s largest online marketplace, we document that iPhone prices decrease with age, around 2.8 to 3.2 percent for each passing month. We find no evidence that the price decline accelerates after launches of new models (i.e. obsolescence), lending support to the view that consumer in durable goods markets are rational and forward-looking.