สถาบันวิจัยเศรษฐกิจป๋วย อึ๊งภากรณ์

ผลงานวิจัยฉบับเต็มโดยนักวิจัยของสถาบันและนักวิชาการภายนอก

THE INCOME AND CONSUMPTION EFFECTS OF COVID-19 AND THE ROLE OF PUBLIC POLICY

by

Suphanit Piyapromdee and Peter Spittal

CORPORATE FINANCE

No. 140
8 มิถุนายน 2563

Common Ownership, Domestic Competition, and Export: Evidence from Thailand

abstract

We use administrative data of all registered firms in Thailand, both public and private, to study the relationships between common ownership, market power, and firms’ export behaviors. Our results suggest that firms in ownership networks tend to have higher market power as measured by markup. In addition, markup is negatively associated with a firm’s propensity to export, its likelihood of product upgrade, and the chance of survival in foreign markets. Our findings have policy implications on antitrust regulations and competitiveness policies, especially in export-oriented economies dominated by powerful business conglomerates.

No. 138
27 พฤษภาคม 2563

Cash flow uncertainty and IPO underpricing: Evidence from Thai REITs

Kanis Saengchote and Chittisa Charoenpanich

abstract

REIT IPOs in Thailand are less underpriced than stock IPOs (2.45% compared to 23.0%), which is a common finding across many international markets (Chan, Chen and Wang, 2013). One of the most common explanations for IPO underpricing is adverse selection arising from information asymmetry. However, research in IPO tends not to investigate this issue directly due to the difficulty in estimating ex-ante uncertainty. REITs provide a unique research setting because some REITs enjoy income guarantee, which can reduce cash flow uncertainty. We find that REITs with income guarantee are much less underpriced on average, corroborating the linkage between cash flow uncertainty and IPO underpricing. We confirm that REITs with income guarantee tend to have lower systematic risk (measured by CAPM beta) and returns, making the nature of some REITs more debt-like than equity-like.

No. 131
16 เมษายน 2563

Mutual Fund Participation in IPOs: Thai Evidence

abstract

Underwriters and co-managers play an important role in IPOs, but because they often have affiliated mutual funds, concerns about conflicts of interest can arise. On the one hand, they can use this affiliation for the benefit of their asset management business (the information advantage hypothesis); on the other hand, they can use mutual funds under their control to support their IPO clients (the quid pro quo hypothesis). In this article, we find that the behavior of lead underwriter-affiliated funds in Thailand is more consistent with the information advantage hypothesis and co-manager-affiliated funds more consistent with the quid pro quo hypothesis. We also find further evidence of strategic placement of IPO stocks within fund family.

No. 129
31 มีนาคม 2563

ESG and Creditworthiness: Two Contrary Evidence from Major Asian Markets

abstract

Assets managed under sustainable investment criteria have been massively growing during the recent years. Among the criteria, environmental, social and governance (ESG) score leads the group as an important indicator of non-financial quality of a firm, which may reflect value to investors either through higher expected profit or lower risk. In this paper, we focus on the latter by exploring whether ESG score has any impact on the credit rating of firms due to the risk mitigation effect. Ordered logistic regressions were applied on a panel dataset of listed companies in Shanghai and Tokyo Stock Exchanges over 2009 – 2018. The results suggest that only in Japan, having ESG coverage is greatly associated with being awarded higher credit rating. However, just the environmental and governance pillars positively affect the Japanese firms’ credit ratings, while the social pillar shows negative effect.

No. 112
19 สิงหาคม 2562

Understanding Corporate Thailand I: Finance

abstract

This study analyzes the entire universe of registered firms in Thailand. There are five main findings. First, firm size distribution is smooth, with a majority of firms in the middle of the distribution; the apparent ”missing middle” phenomenon is entirely driven by arbitrary categorization of small and medium enterprises (SMEs). Second, the Thai corporate sector is very concentrated; the concentration has also risen over the past decade. Third, larger firms seem to have advantages over smaller firms regarding financing. Fourth, smaller firms tend to disproportionately invest less in fixed assets than larger firms. Finally, firms in the middle of the size distribution exhibit the highest return on asset (ROA) but have low leverage, consistent with the symptom of credit constraints. Large firms, in contrast, seem to have lower ROA but higher debt. Meanwhile, smaller firms seem to have both lower leverage and ROA. Overall, our results suggest that the Thai corporate sector exhibits both inefficient capital allocation and financial vulnerability. The paper has important policy implications on resource allocation in the economy, particularly, regarding appropriate assistance provided to small and medium enterprises.

No. 67
29 สิงหาคม 2560

Bank Supply Shocks and Firm Investment: A Granular View from the Thai Credit Registry Data

abstract

This paper attempts to link bank loan supply shocks to the real economic activity at the firm and aggregate level. We apply the methodology pioneered by Amiti and Weinstein (2017) to bank-firm credit registry dataset in Thailand for the period of 2004-2015. Loan growth dynamics of individual banks and individual firms are exactly decomposed into a time series of bank, firm, industry, and common shocks. We show that the bank and firm shocks obtained using this method are consistent with various measures of individual banks’ and firms’ balance sheet health, supporting the validity of the shock decomposition. Results from firm-level regressions indicate that bank supply shocks do matter for firm investment activity even after controlling for common, industry, firm-specific shocks and firm’s leverage. We find that Thai firms are generally highly sensitive to bank lending shocks, particularly firms that borrow from only one bank and have low propensity to switch to another bank. The size and the dynamics of bank shocks appears to differ between heathy versus unhealthy, and small versus large firms, suggesting differential bank lending policy across different types of firms. At the aggregate level, we find that granular bank shock accounts for around 37 percent of aggregate lending growth and is the major source of financial shocks driving aggregate investment.

No. 64
27 กรกฎาคม 2560

Environmental Efforts and Firm Performance

Dyna Seng and  Chaiporn Vithessonthi

abstract

In this paper, we test the prediction that environmental efforts, presenting one dimension of corporate social responsibility, are positively related to firm performance. We analyze a panel sample of non-financial firms in the Netherlands over the period 2001–2014 using two approaches: ordinary least squares regressions and two-stage least squares regressions. Our two-stage least squares regressions show that firms with higher degrees of environmental efforts have better firm performance, measured as return on assets, but have poorer firm performance, measured as return on sales. However, this relationship disappears when firm performance is measured as return on equity or stock return. Our analysis further reveals that better firm performance does not necessarily lead to a disclosure of a firm’s environmental efforts. We find that larger firms are more inclined to report the environmental efforts than smaller firms. Neither prior firm performance nor variation in firm performance moderates the effect of environmental efforts on firm performance.

No. 42
17 สิงหาคม 2559

Firm-level Perspective of Thailand’s Low Investment Puzzle

abstract

Private investment in Thailand has been standing at a low level since the aftermath of the Asian Financial Crisis until present. Using firm-level data of virtually all registered firms in Thailand during 2001-2013, this paper finds that more than 60 percent of Thai firms have been undertaken negative net investment (invested at a rate slower than the depreciation rate) each year. Our regression results suggest that small firms and large firms have been facing different kinds of obstacles that ultimately led to persistently low investment at the aggregate level. For large firms, low or negative net investments are driven mainly by weak growth prospects and future uncertainties. For small firms, their investments are more likely hindered by supply-side constraints (lack of access to external finance) and negative net investments are driven mainly by inefficiency.

No. 37
20 กรกฎาคม 2559

Monetary Policy, Bank Lending and Corporate Investment

Chaiporn Vithessonthi, Markus Schwaninger and Matthias O. Müller

abstract

The purpose of this study is to shed light on the chain of causality from macroeconomic financial policy to the microeconomic investment function. Concretely, we aim to provide an in-depth analysis of the relationships between the monetary policy of central banks, the loan policy of commercial banks, and the investment behavior of firms. We focus on countries that conduct their monetary policy under the inflation-targeting framework. Our empirical analysis with data from Germany, Switzerland and Thailand provides several new insights. First, after controlling for the US monetary policy, the monetary policy in Germany and Thailand appears to influence the banks’ lending rate in the short run (i.e. within two months), whereas the monetary policy in Switzerland seems to be ineffective at influencing the banks’ lending rate in the short run. Second, our results show that the banks’ lending rate has a negative effect on their loans and that this negative effect is weakened by their growth opportunities. Third, we find that the supply of bank loans plays a more pivotal role in determining firms’ investment than the lending rate. Last but not least, we document that neither the lending rate nor the loan-to-assets ratio moderates the sensitivity of the firms’ investment to growth opportunities.

No. 29
25 พฤษภาคม 2559

Corporate Debt Maturity and Future Firm Performance Volatility

abstract

We propose a simple idea that corporate debt maturity should serve as a good indicator of future firm performance volatility. We show in a simple two-period model that the riskiness of corporate investment is a decreasing function of corporate debt maturity. If “observable” corporate debt maturity and ex ante “unobservable” corporate risk-taking is highly correlated, corporate debt maturity should be highly correlated with “ex post” realized firm performance volatility in following years. Using data on publicly listed firms in 10 developing and developed countries over the period 1991-2013, we find that future firm operating performance volatility decreases as corporate debt maturity increases and that future firm value volatility is not associated with corporate debt maturity. In addition, banking sector development and export intensity of a country play an important role in determining firm operating performance volatility.