Common Ownership, Domestic Competition, and Export: Evidence from Thailand
We use administrative data of all registered firms in Thailand, both public and private, to study the relationships between common ownership, market power, and firms’ export behaviors. Our results suggest that firms in ownership networks tend to have higher market power as measured by markup. In addition, markup is negatively associated with a firm’s propensity to export, its likelihood of product upgrade, and the chance of survival in foreign markets. Our findings have policy implications on antitrust regulations and competitiveness policies, especially in export-oriented economies dominated by powerful business conglomerates.
Delinquency Priority in Consumer Credit: Evidence from Thai Microdata
This study examines the question of how consumer prioritize default across products. We find that about a third of Thai individuals who face default decisions on mortgage and non-mortgage loans choose to default on mortgage loans first. As predicted by theory, their decisions are influenced by relative debt burden and amount of housing equity, consistent with both the ability to pay and the willingness to pay channels. We also find a puzzling result that borrowers who hold older mortgage loans are more likely to default on their mortgages; we hypothesize that this is perhaps related to refinancing.
Why Does the WTO Prohibit Export Subsidies But Not Import Tariffs?
We develop a three-stage lobbying game to explain why the WTO prohibits export subsidies but not import tariffs. In this model, the government chooses trade policies (i.e., import tariffs or export subsidies) to maximize a weighted sum of social welfare and lobbying contributions. We argue that the economic rents from export subsidies cannot be contained exclusively within lobby groups because new capitalists, who will enter the growing export sector, freely benefit from export subsidies without paying political contributions at the time of lobbying. In the contracting import-competing industries, no new entrants erode the protection rents from tariffs. Therefore, the government receives large political contributions by protecting these import-competing industries. We show that, given that capital reallocation is costly, when the free-rider problem is severe the government will sign a trade agreement that prohibits only export subsidies.
The European Smoking Bans and Mature Smokers: Can They Kick the Habit?
Using individual level data, this paper investigates whether nationwide smoke-free legislations in Europe lead to smoking reduction and cessation among mature smokers. It exploits cross-country data and the European Union’s multinational governance that provides a quasi-experimental setting. Top-down regulations on smoke-free environment by the EU mitigate the self-selection bias and endogeneity bias of smoke-free laws generally faced in other settings. The results show that comprehensive bans lower smoking propensity by approximately 7 percent and reduced smoking intensity by 10 percent. The effect persisted and increased over time. Light smokers and heavy smokers were 14.5 and 7.2 percent more likely to quit while there is no significant effect on average smokers. Those working in industry and occupation that faced with more comprehensive and strict bans were also more likely to quit, showing that comprehensive bans can increase smoking cessation even among mature smokers with well-established addiction.
Should All Blockchain-Based Digital Assets Be Classified Under the Same Asset Class?
The literature is well aware that blockchain-based digital assets would constitute a new asset class. However, it has been rather silent about the distinction among them. This paper discusses the digital tokens’ differences and similarities by their (i) creation and initial distribution; (ii) intended properties; (iii) actual usage; and (iv) behaviors. Although the digital tokens are indistinguishable in some aspects, they differ in the way they are created and initially distributed. Some of them have distinguishable risk and return profiles. Therefore, we take a view that the digital tokens take (or will take) different roles in the financial systems; should be classified under different asset classes; and should be subject to different sets of regulations (although some may overlap).
The Journey to Less-Cash Society: Thailand’s Payment System at a Crossroads
Digital technology is changing the way we transact and pay each other, but cash usage remains dominant in many countries. In Thailand, it remains a question whether and to what extent electronic payments (e-payment) can replace cash. What is the role of a central bank amid challenges and opportunities at this crossroads? The paper explores global trends in cash and e-payment and outlines Thailand’s existing retail payment landscape. Both physical and IT/ICT infrastructure are assessed at micro-level with regard to Thailand’s readiness to move away from cash. However, given coexistence of cash and e-payment at present, we explore ways in which efficiency of cash management process can be improved. Data on cash distribution by geographical area are utilized to illustrate usage of Thai consumers and identify costs and inefficiency associated with cash management. On the other hand, adoption of e-payment can play a critical role in moving toward a less-cash society, if not a cashless one. The paper highlights the latest data on e-payment behavior in Thailand, especially PromptPay transactions as well as mobile/internet transactions after the transfer fee reduction in March 2018.
The Impact of LTV policy on Bank Lending: Evidence from Disaggregate Housing Loan Data
How did the Loan-to-Value (LTV) measures aimed at increasing resilience of the banking system affect banks’ lending? This paper utilizes bank-level and contract-level data of housing credit in Thailand spanning from 2004 to 2017, and applies the panel data and probit approaches in evaluating the impact of LTV measures introduced in 2009, 2011 and 2013 on the housing loans. We find that the LTV measures had an impact on banks’ risk-taking behavior in ways consistent with the policy’s objectives. The effects manifest in a reshaping of LTV distribution of the targeted loan sector rather than a credit growth slowdown at the bank level. In addition, the size of adjustment varies across different types of banks, with stronger response from large and small banks compared with medium banks. Overall, our results suggest that certain macroprudential policies can achieve target-specific outcome, but with differential impact across banks. Nevertheless, questions remain regarding the channels through which LTV measures impact bank lending and factors underlying diverging response among banks.
The Social Cost of Thailand’s Transportation Fuel Pricing Policy
The price structure of Thailand’s transportation fuels has always been heavily distorted by the government. The prices of diesel and biofuels are consistently subsidized, while the prices of other fuels are raised above their competitive level in order to provide cross-subsidies to diesel and biofuels. Price distortion in this fashion leads to over- /under-consumption of transportation fuels relative to the socially optimal level. This study estimates the economic and social cost of the price distortions within Thailand’s transportation fuel market that stem from inecient price structure and cross subsidies.