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สถาบันวิจัยเศรษฐกิจป๋วย อึ๊งภากรณ์
Puey Ungphakorn
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PIER’s Targeted Research Grant 2025 – Call for Proposal
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Year
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18 June 2025
20251750204800000

Topic: Semi-and informal loans and the design of inclusive and resilient financial system

Semi-formal loans (e.g., from cooperatives, village funds) and informal loans (e.g., from moneylenders, loan sharks) remains a key component of household and SME finance in Thailand. In the absence of comprehensive administrative data, the PIER Rural Household Survey estimates that up to 86% of rural households hold such loans. The welfare implications of these credit sources remain ambiguous. On one hand, they may bridge access gaps for those excluded from formal finance allowing households to smooth consumption and invest; on the other, their absence from credit registries may enable overborrowing, fuel debt revolving behavior, and complicate debt restructuring efforts. A deeper understanding of the prevalence, intensity, and roles of semi-/informal credit is essential for shaping a more inclusive and resilient financial system.

Potential research topics

  1. Innovative approach to measuring the prevalence and intensity of semi-formal and informal lending among Thai households and SMEs.
  2. The potential welfare and economic impacts of semi/informal loans and mechanisms through which these loans could perpetuate debt traps?
  3. Structural and institutional factors driving reliance on semi-/informal lending, and implications for designing financial systems that better serve underbanked and unbanked populations.

Examples of related research

Agarwal, S., Kigabo, T., Minoiu, C., Presbitero, A. F., & Silva, A. F. (2023). Serving the Underserved: Microcredit as a Pathway to Commercial Banks. Review of Economics and Statistics, 105(4), 780–797.
Banerjee, A., Breza, E., Chandrasekhar, A. G., Duflo, E., Jackson, M. O., & Kinnan, C. (2024). Changes in Social Network Structure in Response to Exposure to Formal Credit Markets. Review of Economic Studies, 91(3), 1331–1372.
Beaman, L., Karlan, D., Thuysbaert, B., & Udry, C. (2023). Selection into Credit Markets: Evidence from Agriculture in Mali. Econometrica, 91(5), 1595–1627.
Brailovskaya, V., Dupas, P., & Robinson, J. (2024). Is Digital Credit Filling a Hole or Digging a Hole? Evidence from Malawi. The Economic Journal, 134(658), 457–484.
Breza, E., & Kinnan, C. (2021). Measuring the Equilibrium Impacts of Credit: Evidence from the Indian Microfinance Crisis. Quarterly Journal of Economics, 136(3), 1447–1497.
Karlan, D., & Zinman, J. (2009). Observing Unobservables: Identifying Information Asymmetries with a Consumer Credit Field Experiment. Econometrica, 77(6), 1993–2008.

Puey Ungphakorn Institute for Economic Research

273 Samsen Rd, Phra Nakhon, Bangkok 10200

Phone: 0-2283-6066

Email: pier@bot.or.th

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