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7 July 2025
20251751846400000

Topic: Inflation Measurement and Dynamics

Accurately measuring inflation is essential for implementing monetary policy aimed at maintaining price stability. Key challenges include accounting for changes in product quality, capturing price dynamics in the digital economy, and analyzing how inflation may differ between various consumer groups.

Beyond accurate measurement, a deeper understanding of inflation dynamics is equally important. While conventional determinants—such as oil prices and domestic demand—remain relevant, emerging factors like climate shocks (e.g., extreme weather events) may also influence inflation. The effects of such shocks on Thai inflation are not yet well understood.

Examples of Potential Research Topics

  1. Inflation measurement and quality adjustment in key sectors, e.g., automobiles, housing, healthcare.
  2. Price-setting behavior and inflation measurement using survey and/or online price data.
  3. Alternative inflation indices for different consumer classes (e.g., rich vs. poor).
  4. Inflation drivers – how traditional drivers and new factors affect inflation and what are their implications for monetary policy?

Available and relevant Data

  1. Micro-level online price data set from Thai supermarkets (2020–2025)
  2. Historical data on temperature, precipitation, and climate indices such as SPI and SPEI from 1970 to 2022, along with future climate projections for Thailand from 2040 to 2099 at district and provincial levels.

Examples of Related Research

Bilal, A., & Stock, J. H. (2025). Macroeconomics and Climate Change (NBER Working Paper No. 33567). National Bureau of Economic Research.
Cavallo, A., & Rigobon, R. (2016). The Billion Prices Project: Using Online Prices for Measurement and Research. Journal of Economic Perspectives, 30(2), 151–178.
Crawford, I., & Neary, J. P. (2023). New Characteristics and Hedonic Price Index Numbers. The Review of Economics and Statistics, 105(3), 665–682.
Kaplan, G., & Schulhofer-Wohl, S. (2017). Inflation at the Household Level. Journal of Monetary Economics, 91, 19–38.

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