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Call for Papers: PIER Research Workshop 2025
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31 May 2018
20181527724800000
No. 086

Economic Impacts of Political Uncertainty in Thailand

Abstract

This paper aims to analyze political uncertainty in Thailand by looking at various dimensions of political uncertainty and quantifying the economic impacts. Based on keyword search in Thai-language newspapers, the paper proposes five measures related to different aspects of political uncertainty. These are: (1) political protest (2) official measures in dealing with political violence (3) coup d'état (4) parliament dissolution or election and (5) political structural reform, including the aggregate index of political uncertainty. We find that the overall political uncertainty in Thailand has been in the rising trend during the past 20 years. In particular, during the past 10 years, the main source of Thai political uncertainty comes from uncertainty related to political structural reform. Based on various econometric specifications, rising political uncertainty is found to have significant negative impacts on the Thai economy both in the short run – particularly, private investment – and economic growth in the long run. Nevertheless, we find that the degree of the economic impact and statistical significance on different components of macroeconomy is quite varied, reflecting complicated interaction between political factors and economic outcome.

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JEL: C01D80E22E66P48
Tags: thai political uncertaintypolitical protestpartisan conflictcoupelectioneconomic impacts
The views expressed in this workshop do not necessarily reflect the views of the Puey Ungphakorn Institute for Economic Research or the Bank of Thailand.
Pongsak Luangaram
Pongsak Luangaram
Chulalongkorn University
Yuthana Sethapramote
Yuthana Sethapramote
National Institute of Development Administration

Puey Ungphakorn Institute for Economic Research

273 Samsen Rd, Phra Nakhon, Bangkok 10200

Phone: 0-2283-6066

Email: pier@bot.or.th

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