Developments within housing markets and mortgage finance are a key source of macroeconomic volatility and carry substantial implications for financial stability. Central banks have been vigilant regarding risks emanating from these sectors, driven by factors such as prolonged periods of low interest rates followed by sharp increases (as witnessed post-COVID-19), easing lending standards for both homebuyers and developers, and speculative activity in certain market segments. Furthermore, evolving demographic trends and unforeseen events such as the recent earthquake can exert pressure on housing preferences, affordability, and geographic distribution of demand. Consequently, rigorous research that deepens our understanding of the fundamental drivers of housing market and mortgage dynamics – including house prices, sales volumes, new construction, and mortgage origination at both aggregate and disaggregated levels – as well as their dynamic interconnections with broader business and financial cycles is essential for comprehending the impact of these markets on the real economy and for navigating the trade-offs inherent in formulating effective monetary policy and macroprudential regulations.
- Drivers of housing market dynamics and their implications for business cycle fluctuations and financial stability
- Drivers of mortgage credit dynamics, distinguishing between demand-side and supply-side influences.
- Spillover of housing market fluctuations to real sectors, such as implications for construction, employment, consumption and investment.
- Transaction-level mortgage loan data reported by all Thai commercial banks and subsidiaries and branches of foreign banks operating in Thailand, from 2004 to 2024.