Thailand’s Sustainable Green Growth: Embedding Resilience
The policy forum was held online and was a closed-door forum amongst academia, policy makers, private sector representatives and experts in the field of climate change. Main discussion points from the event are summarized below.
The pandemic has highlighted the importance of creating an enabling environment for sustainable economic growth as this provides not only new opportunities but is an important source of growth going forward.
- Businesses today view climate change as a long-term threat. In a 2021 survey by Deloitte, 80 percent of businesses were concerned over climate change and have incorporated sustainability into their business plans. However, two thirds of respondents have cut back on sustainability plans due to the pandemic.
- Increasing research, as that by the IMF, now view that public environmental spending has multiplier effects 2–7 times that of conventional multipliers, creating jobs and strengthening economies. ILO estimates that 24 million new jobs will be created by 2030 if the right policies are in place.
Post pandemic, it is important that countries give priorities to both the economy and the environment together. Data shows that environmental factors have not yet been sufficiently included into work plans and it is important to incorporate these concerns into fiscal policies, investments, and into packages that target poverty reduction and improve digital access.
Some actions that could increase the speed with which greenhouse gas emissions are reduced include 1) promotion of greener fuels vs fossil fuels 2) use of carbon pricing and carbon taxes 3) incentives or regulations to reduce emissions in industry, transport, and buildings 4) focus on more nature based solutions such as organic fertilizers and 5) work on inclusiveness
- Thailand has a number of existing vulnerabilities which will be amplified by climate-related risks. Observations over the past forty years indicate that Thailand’s average temperature has risen 1˚C and is expected to rise another 2–4˚C by 2100 (Figure 1). There are also changes in precipitation patterns as rainfall and cyclone intensities have increased whilst there are periods of prolonged drought. In the past fifty years, the wet season has experienced more rainfall whilst more rainfall occurred during the dry season. Under RCP 8.51 it is estimated that by 2100 sea level will increase by approximately 1 meter. This will affect areas where roughly more than 10 percent of the population are living and puts Bangkok particularly at risk. The increased heat will also increase health and mortality effects especially for the elderly. This is especially of concern as Thailand has an aging population.
Economically, key sectors of the economy such as agriculture and energy will be impacted by climate change placing vulnerable households and SMEs at risk. Currently, 8 million households are in the agricultural sector and make up approximately 34.1 percent of the total labor force, yet only 26 percent of agricultural households have access to irrigation systems. Most are small holders and have low education.
To mitigate these climate risks, Thailand has undertaken a number of measures and established a National Climate Committee tasked to put in place the National Adaptation Plan, Nationally Appropriate Mitigation Actions and NDC Mitigation Roadmap. Six key sectors have been identified and set with carbon emissions reduction targets of 20–25 percent by 2030. To date, Thailand has reduced emissions annually by 14–15 percent and are on track to achieving target carbon reductions. Currently, Thailand is working on the development of Long-term Low Emissions Development Strategy.
At the forum the challenges of achieving sustainable green growth given the context of a developing country, such as Thailand, were discussed and issues regarding societal imbalances especially with SMEs and vulnerable groups were raised. Key challenges highlighted in the discussion are as follows:
- the lack of awareness and knowledge among the general population on the “tragedy of the horizon” where climate change effects are felt in the long-term yet result from actions undertaken today
- the lack of key infrastructures necessary for a green economy such as smart power grids that can handle unstable renewable energy supplies and water management infrastructure to cope with extreme precipitation
- insufficient research and innovation which could drive new green technology and improve the ability to accurately predict climate variability and understand the effects, and
- fragmented governance and policies.
The forum then discussed how best to bring forward these challenges and enable a just transition to a low carbon economy, highlighting how some private sector players had already taken important steps and committed to becoming a net zero carbon company. Several views were discussed and participants agreed on:
- The importance of designing policies that include a combination of financial and non-financial incentives. In turn, these policies would encourage greater involvement and awareness, enable the design of clear transition paths, properly allocate resources between relevant stakeholders as well as supporting research and developments in climate change technologies.
- The need to provide infrastructure to support green policies and activities. It was discussed that more investment was needed in physical infrastructure such as those for water transport and storage, smart electricity grids or carbon trading. To ensure that green activities are aligned, the importance of having clear policy and governance structures as well as regulations facilitating transitions was also highlighted. Lastly, discussants noted the importance of collaborative platforms between public and private sectors to design market based solutions as well as to ensure that policy and measures are implementable and achievable.
- RCP refers to Representative Concentration Pathways which project carbon emissions. RCP 8.5 is the concentration of carbon that delivers global warming at an average of 8.5 watts per square meter across the planet and is a high emissions scenario. Results estimate temperatures to increase by about 4.3 ˚C by 2100, relative to pre-industrial temperatures. ↩
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9:00 | Welcoming Remarks by | ||||||||
Opening Remarks by | |||||||||
Setting up the context Moderator: Krislert Samphantharak (Puey Ungphakorn Institute for Economic Research)
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10:15 | Break | ||||||||
Current Approaches, Challenges, and the Way Forward Moderator: Adis Israngkura (National Institute of Development Administration)
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12:00 | Lunch break | ||||||||
Panel Discussion — From concept to implementation: Policy Tools and Financing a Green Growth Future Moderator: Swisa Pongpech (Puey Ungphakorn Institute for Economic Research)
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15:30 | Wrap up and Closing Remarks by |